Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 21.024129 22.944779 25.079308 27.651751 30.701643 34.246829 38.748253
2025-01-12 17.862805 20.294652 23.197691 27.000215 31.983346 38.506590 48.110136
2025-01-19 16.484786 19.361538 23.011011 28.165004 35.610014 46.670814 66.127642
2025-01-26 14.975574 17.984705 21.964638 27.898446 37.134448 52.384302 84.140649
2025-02-02 13.929947 17.043264 21.309806 27.983471 39.119753 59.567321 111.234975
2025-02-09 13.139554 16.334649 20.850640 28.226167 41.370249 68.265263 153.776691
2025-02-16 12.443750 15.672992 20.355772 28.291258 43.289332 77.354385 218.453968
2025-02-23 11.758612 14.956672 19.685788 27.934248 44.285285 84.951349 307.821736
2025-03-02 11.251322 14.452959 19.281640 27.957766 46.054460 95.981753 508.610433
2025-03-09 10.758887 13.930234 18.790358 27.740390 47.239335 106.411774 938.124994
2025-03-16 10.309690 13.439596 18.302981 27.454697 48.194650 117.208230 2364.531578
2025-03-23 9.913253 13.002916 17.864940 27.199848 49.167039 129.475542 35813.424110
2025-03-30 9.557449 12.613295 17.483259 27.025707 50.379134 145.219036 NaN
2025-04-06 9.156686 12.131466 16.910585 26.398859 50.228723 154.438124 NaN
2025-04-13 9.066428 12.134269 17.168293 27.519818 55.448019 208.850643 NaN
2025-04-20 8.775362 11.797545 16.803685 27.263476 56.453688 237.612601 NaN
2025-04-27 8.555001 11.563624 16.604586 27.345289 58.623120 288.939215 NaN
2025-05-04 8.371090 11.379206 16.480310 27.578727 61.451380 371.301121 NaN
2025-05-11 8.177516 11.168736 16.292727 27.641327 63.737155 476.804693 NaN
2025-05-18 7.946226 10.884878 15.950788 27.297957 64.368088 565.952547 NaN
2025-05-25 7.773993 10.692646 15.768703 27.320581 66.543776 771.833615 NaN
2025-06-01 7.585134 10.464344 15.504550 27.111457 67.700216 1019.390657 NaN
2025-06-08 7.399806 10.234910 15.225648 26.836544 68.505048 1367.468955 NaN